Weekly Forex Forecast July 13-17, 2026 — USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold & Key Levels to Watch

The forex market enters the week of July 13-17, 2026 with a mix of cautious optimism and geopolitical tension. Last week’s FOMC minutes revealed a slightly hawkish tilt among Federal Reserve members, while the deteriorating US-Iran situation around the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to rattle crude oil markets. For forex traders, this week presents several high-impact events that could drive significant volatility across major pairs.

Key Events This Week

The economic calendar is relatively light but carries heavyweight data points. The most important releases, in order of likely market impact, are:

• US CPI (Inflation) — Tuesday: The headline inflation figure will be the week’s centerpiece. A higher-than-expected print could fuel further USD strength and push the Dollar Index toward a breakout above the key 101.39 resistance level.
• US PPI — Wednesday: Producer price data will provide additional context on inflation trends and could reinforce or contradict the CPI narrative.
• Fed Chair Warsh Testifies to Congress — Thursday: Markets will scrutinize every word for clues about the rate path. Any hawkish signals could accelerate the dollar’s bullish momentum.
• Bank of Canada Policy Meeting — Wednesday: With Canadian unemployment unexpectedly dropping to 6.5%, the BoC’s decision and forward guidance will be closely watched by USD/CAD and CAD/JPY traders.
• UK GDP — Friday: Sterling traders will look to GDP data for direction on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.

US Dollar: Poised for a Breakout?

The US Dollar Index printed an inside doji candlestick last week, signaling indecision but closing higher. The index is threatening a breakout to a new 13-month high above the long-term resistance at 101.39. A valid bullish trend is established — the dollar sits above its levels from both 3 and 6 months ago — but the failure to decisively break resistance keeps the outlook uncertain. A hotter-than-expected CPI print on Tuesday could be the catalyst that finally pushes the greenback through this barrier.

USD/JPY: Bullish Momentum Continues

USD/JPY delivered a 0.21% gain last week, continuing its steady climb. The pair benefits from the hawkish Fed narrative and remains one of the strongest directional trades. With US inflation data on deck, a positive surprise could send USD/JPY toward new highs. Traders should watch for any intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials, though the fundamental backdrop favors further upside.

EUR/USD: Under Pressure

The euro weakened 0.16% against the dollar last week, and the outlook remains bearish. The July monthly forecast calls for further EUR/USD declines, driven by the interest rate differential and geopolitical uncertainty in Europe. Tuesday is a public holiday in France, which may thin European liquidity and amplify any USD-driven moves.

Gold and Oil: Geopolitical Wildcards

The Strait of Hormuz situation is the biggest wildcard this week. Daily exchanges of fire between the US and Iran have effectively closed the strait to shipping, and Iran has launched attacks against US allies including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq. Crude oil prices are expected to rise as markets open, which could spill over into commodity currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars. Gold may also see safe-haven demand if the conflict escalates further.

Trading Strategy for the Week

With 19% of major currency pairs moving more than 1% last week, volatility is elevated and likely to remain so — especially in USD pairs. The smart play is to wait for the CPI release on Tuesday before committing to directional positions. A bullish USD breakout above 101.39 would open the door for long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD trades. For risk management, consider using a reputable broker with tight spreads during high-volatility events. Check out our Exness review or IC Markets review for brokers that perform well during news-driven markets.